Football does not influence politics

I will start by making make a pretty boring statement:  There is no evidence indicating that the semi-final exit of Brazil will influence the presidential elections in October. The day after the humiliating loss, the newspaper Folha de São Paulo reminded us of the fact that Brazil has kept it’s governments when they have lost, and got a new government the last time they won in 2002. In addition to this no research or survey has ever been able to indicate any decisive connection between soccer and politics. So why should it be different now?

First of all the world cup is being held in Brazil for the first time in 64 years. It is obvious that a victory would boost the self-esteem of the Brazilians like it would for any nation. The frames for the celebration would be perfect as Brazil holds the image of being the true home of soccer. It would be electric and the humiliation of 1950 when Brazil lost the finals against Uruguay would be made up for. But it did not happen.

Secondly, looking at the big protests in relation to the Confederation Cup in 2013 and the following unrest related to overspending, police violence and lack of investment in public welfare, it was speculated in whether a World Cup victory could calm tensions and be a benefit for the president. But we will never know, because Brazil did not win.

My point is that any speculation about whether this will influence the presidential election are based on guesses about what could happen if Brazil won the World Cup, something they did not. It is basically speculating about what could happen if something that did not happen did happen.  In addition to this it is based on assumptions about relationships between soccer and politics that has never been proved. If we study the development of Brazil, it is true that soccer is often one of the references for Brazilian identity. But few, if any, analyzes of Brazilian politics points to defeats and success in the soccer field as relevant for the development in politics.

The world cup in Brazil is however of paramount interest as a social event where conflicts and problems in Brazilian society are being accentuated and more visible than usual. Abuse of public funding is nothing new and unfilled promises from politicians is more the expectation than the exception. As such, it is more the values and conflicts being visible as the World Cup is held in Brazil that is interesting than the results on the soccer field. So, the result of the 7-1 defeat is probably not influencing the elections in October, as there will be no victory that maybe could work as anesthetics. But I doubt that even a victory could make Brazilians forget the problems and challenges in Brazil.